Geopolitical Game of Rare Earths: China's "Chokepoint" Strategy and the Reshaping of India's Strategic Autonomy

China's escalation of rare earth export control policies in 2025 marks a shift in its strategic focus from mere raw material regulation to deep control over the entire rare earth industry chain, including magnetic materials, processing equipment, and final products containing components of Chinese origin. The essence of this strategy is to leverage key resources for geopolitical leverage, transforming supply chain 'chokepoints' into national strategic weapons.

For India, the solidification of this Chinese rare earth dominance poses a systemic risk to the country's industrial development in the electric vehicle (EV), semiconductor, and clean energy sectors. The production of these emerging industries has a very high dependence on high-purity rare earths; any supply disruption or technological blockade could impede its industrial upgrading path and leave India vulnerable to external dependency in key technological areas.

Facing this structural challenge, India is actively promoting the building of 'strategic self-reliance'. Its policy and international cooperation pathways reveal a multi-dimensional response logic: on one hand, seeking to build more resilient supply chains jointly with partners through international cooperation, such as the 'Quad Critical Minerals Initiative'; on the other hand, at the domestic level, measures like the 'National Critical Minerals Action' and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes are attempting to achieve domestic breakthroughs in key production links to reduce exposure to single external supplies.

This competition surrounding rare earths goes far beyond an economic game over the resources themselves; it profoundly reflects how key strategic resources are being restructured by geopolitics in the current process of global industrialization. For India, its success or failure depends not only on its internal mineral reserves and processing capabilities but also on its bargaining power and diplomatic strategy in the restructuring of the global value chain. In the future, whether India can effectively balance China's control over rare earth supplies while simultaneously achieving strategic security for its industry will be the crucial litmus test for its position in the global competition for key technologies.