Geopolitical Reshaping of Critical Minerals in Energy Transition: Structural Shift from Fossil Fuel Dependence to New and Old Supply Chains

The grand narrative of energy transition is reshaping the global industrial landscape at an unprecedented speed, and its core driving force lies in the immense demand for critical minerals—the strategic elements that support the smooth transition of energy systems from fossil fuels to clean energy. As indicated by the IRENA report, achieving the 1.5°C temperature control target necessitates large-scale low-carbon infrastructure construction, which directly fuels the explosive demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements.

This surge in demand is not a simple linear growth but a structural shift. The report clearly points out that the energy transition will be mineral and metal-intensive, meaning the reliance on these strategic resources will shift from a traditional energy security perspective to a strategic positioning in new materials. It is worth noting that the 'criticality' of key materials is not static; it is dynamically influenced by economic, geopolitical, and technological factors, requiring the industry to adopt a more scenario-dependent risk assessment framework.

From a geopolitical perspective, the risk logic brought about by this transition has fundamentally changed. In the past, energy security was primarily centered on the sustained availability of fossil fuels; now, the focus of risk has shifted to supply disruptions of critical minerals. Although disruptions in critical mineral supply have limited impact on the operation of existing energy systems, their impact on the grand process of 'energy transition' is profound; supply bottlenecks at any critical node could lead to a slowdown or even a halt in the transition process.

The restructuring of the supply chain clearly outlines a new geographical concentration map. The report reveals a profound reality: the mining and processing stages of critical minerals exhibit high geographical concentration. China holds an almost absolute control over the refining of rare earths (such as heavy rare earths) and parts of cobalt and lithium, which not only means that China's position in the global value chain is shifting from a mere manufacturing link to a high-value resource processing link, but also foreshadows further consolidation of its influence in the new new energy industry chain.

This concentration brings new industrial opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it provides a window for strategic positioning for countries and enterprises with resource endowments and technological integration capabilities. On the other hand, this high level of dependency also exposes the resilience of the global supply chain to new tests. In the future, the focus of industrial competition will no longer be solely on improving production efficiency, but on controlling critical mineral resources, achieving self-sufficiency in processing technology, and building a diversified, decentralized supply chain system. For global enterprises, this means viewing resource security as a core competency and actively responding to the structural risk shift from fossil fuel dependency to critical mineral dependency.