Green Hydrogen Reshapes the Global Industrial Map: Opportunities and Challenges for China's Industrial Chain

The Industrialization Logic of Green Hydrogen: From Energy Carrier to Industrial Catalyst

In June 2026, South Africa officially released the Green Hydrogen and Power-to-X (PtX) project development standards, aiming to attract investment and promote the formation of domestic industrial chains such as green steel and green chemicals. This standard is not an isolated event but a microcosm of global green hydrogen transitioning from demonstration to scale, from an energy concept to an industrial entity. In Kenya, 15 green hydrogen projects have been approved, targeting a total of 5 GW of off-grid renewable energy capacity, focusing on producing green ammonia, sustainable aviation fuel, and green steel. Namibia's Hyphen Hydrogen Energy, in collaboration with GIZ, has launched a local supplier development program, attempting to convert resource endowments into long-term industrial capacity.

The common feature of these projects is that green hydrogen is no longer viewed solely as a clean fuel but as an "industry trigger"—by localizing the production of green hydrogen and its derivatives, new manufacturing segments are created, enabling resource-rich countries to achieve industrial upgrading.

China's Chain Penetration and Challenges

China occupies a critical node in the green hydrogen value chain. From electrolyzer manufacturing (alkaline, PEM, SOEC), storage and transportation equipment, to hydrogen fuel cell systems, Chinese companies already hold a significant global market share. For example, Dongfeng's 49-ton hydrogen heavy truck is equipped with a 400 kW fuel cell system, demonstrating a technological breakthrough in the hydrogenation of domestic commercial vehicles. However, the wave of green hydrogen industrialization has multi-dimensional impacts on China:

• Equipment Export Opportunities: Large-scale green hydrogen projects in Africa, the Middle East, and Australia rely on China's cost-effective electrolyzers and infrastructure. By 2025, China's electrolyzer production capacity accounted for over 60% globally, with exports shifting from individual equipment to "integrated solutions plus O&M services."
• Platinum Group Metals Strategy: Both PEM electrolyzers and hydrogen fuel cells require platinum group metals (PGMs). As a net importer of PGMs (with South Africa as the main source), China faces a contradiction between growing demand and stable supply. Producing countries like South Africa and Zimbabwe are trying to increase PGM value-added through green hydrogen industrialization. China needs to secure resource stability through long-term procurement agreements or investments in upstream mines.
• International Standards Game: South Africa's PtX standard draws on the EU framework, while Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industry collaborates with Ecolog to build an Oman-Europe liquid hydrogen transport corridor, showing that international rules are being set by first movers. Although China has an advantage in equipment manufacturing, it still needs breakthroughs in certification and standard-setting influence.

Supply Chain Restructuring: From "Trade Minerals" to "Industrial Capability"

Traditionally, resource countries export minerals, and manufacturing countries import and process them. Green hydrogen industrialization may rewrite this model: South Africa may directly export "green hydrogen + green steel" instead of iron ore, and Kenya may export green ammonia instead of importing fertilizer. This puts China's blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace long-process steel mills under more intense green competition, while also providing a market for China's green steel technology exports (such as hydrogen-based direct reduction iron).

Long-term Trend: The "China+1" Strategy for the Green Hydrogen Chain

Multinational companies like Toyota are investing 10.Multinational companies like Toyota are investing 1.04 billion rand in South Africa to strengthen the hydrogen energy industry chain. Their deployment is not only about localized production but may also position South Africa as a bridgehead for exporting green hydrogen products to Africa and Europe. When Chinese enterprises participate in such projects, they need to form a symbiotic model of "Chinese equipment + local operations" with local companies to mitigate geopolitical risks and enhance brand influence.

Conclusion

Green hydrogen is transforming from a pilot "future technology" into a real "industrialization engine." For China, the opportunities lie in equipment exports and market development for green hydrogen derivatives, while challenges come from resource dependency and competition over international rules. Future industrial competitiveness will depend on whether China can upgrade from a mere equipment supplier to a full-chain solution provider for green hydrogen and secure a place in standard-setting.